Historical teaching case · prepared as of 2026-08-05 · not maintained to track the company · educational material, not investment advice · capital at risk

ASMLASML Holding N.V.€1,453·€560bnMIFP openimplied 19.9%base €694-52.3%

Workbench

Draft matches publish

Revenue buildup

5y growth 19.9%summary

Revenue by segment, in millions. Select a row to edit its growth path — the group row opens every segment.

Segment	FY25A	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31	FY32	FY33	FY34	FY35	FY36	FY37	FY38	FY39	FY40	FY41	FY42	FY43	FY44	FY45	FY46	FY47	FY48	FY49	FY50	growth
Extreme-ultraviolet systems	11,603	18,832	27,348	35,471	41,370	43,843	46,255	48,706	51,239	53,852	56,545	59,372	62,341	65,458	68,731	72,167	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	30.5%
Non-extreme-ultraviolet systems	12,872	13,901	15,569	16,504	16,999	17,424	17,946	18,485	19,039	19,611	20,199	20,805	21,429	22,072	22,734	23,416	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.2%
Installed base management	8,193	10,499	12,099	14,383	16,691	19,574	22,253	24,527	26,058	27,150	28,089	29,030	30,165	31,526	32,941	34,417	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.0%
Group revenue	32,667	43,233	55,017	66,357	75,059	80,841	86,454	91,719	96,336	100,613	104,833	109,207	113,935	119,055	124,406	130,000	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.9%

Operating economics

5y avg margin 42.3%summary

Operating margin, per cent of revenue. Tax and reinvestment follow below; the terminal assumptions sit on the premises panel.

Line	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31	FY32	FY33	FY34	FY35	FY36	FY37	FY38	FY39	FY40	FY41	FY42	FY43	FY44	FY45	FY46	FY47	FY48	FY49	FY50	avg margin	Long-run
Operating margin	40.2	42.1	42.9	43.1	43.2	42.8	42.3	42.0	41.8	41.6	41.5	41.5	41.4	41.4	41.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	42.3%	41.5%

Tax & reinvestment

year-5 investment 3,214m

Cash tax as a share of operating profit; capital spend and working capital as net investment per unit of new sales — the rate the model charges against each year's revenue growth. Select a row to edit its annual path.

Line	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31	FY32	FY33	FY34	FY35	FY36	FY37	FY38	FY39	FY40	FY41	FY42	FY43	FY44	FY45	FY46	FY47	FY48	FY49	FY50	Long-run driver
Cash tax rate	17.0%	17.6%	17.6%	17.6%	17.6%	17.6%	17.6%	17.6%	17.6%	17.6%	17.6%	17.6%	17.6%	17.6%	17.6%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.6%
Capital spend	5.6%	20.9%	21.1%	21.5%	22.1%	22.3%	22.6%	23.1%	21.1%	21.1%	21.1%	21.1%	21.1%	21.1%	21.1%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.1%
Working capital	33.5%	33.5%	33.5%	33.5%	33.5%	33.5%	33.5%	33.5%	33.5%	33.5%	33.5%	33.5%	33.5%	33.5%	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	33.5%

What the assumptions imply

does not price out

Computed from the sections above and the premises panel — nothing here is editable. The walk runs to the highlighted crossover column — the first year the assumptions justify today's market price — and out to the 25-year ceiling when they never do, growing and shrinking as edits move the crossover.

Millions unless stated	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31	FY32	FY33	FY34	FY35	FY36	FY37	FY38	FY39	FY40	FY41	FY42	FY43	FY44	FY45	FY46	FY47	FY48	FY49	FY50
Revenue
Group revenue	43,233	55,017	66,357	75,059	80,841	86,454	91,719	96,336	100,613	104,833	109,207	113,935	119,055	124,406	130,000	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Revenue growth	32.3%	27.3%	20.6%	13.1%	7.7%	6.9%	6.1%	5.0%	4.4%	4.2%	4.2%	4.3%	4.5%	4.5%	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Operating profit
Operating profit	17,397	23,147	28,469	32,379	34,887	36,973	38,833	40,491	42,039	43,650	45,368	47,279	49,344	51,562	53,880	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Operating margin	40.2%	42.1%	42.9%	43.1%	43.2%	42.8%	42.3%	42.0%	41.8%	41.6%	41.5%	41.5%	41.4%	41.4%	41.4%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Taxes	2,957	4,085	5,025	5,715	6,158	6,526	6,854	7,147	7,420	7,704	8,008	8,345	8,709	9,101	9,510	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Operating profit after tax	14,439	19,062	23,444	26,664	28,730	30,447	31,979	33,345	34,619	35,946	37,361	38,934	40,635	42,461	44,370	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Cash flow
Investment	4,128	6,407	6,190	4,783	3,214	3,135	2,955	2,613	2,335	2,304	2,388	2,581	2,796	2,921	3,054	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Free cash flow	10,311	12,655	17,254	21,881	25,515	27,312	29,023	30,731	32,284	33,642	34,973	36,353	37,839	39,540	41,316	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Returns	terminal return on new capital 30.0%
Reinvestment rate	28.6%	33.6%	26.4%	17.9%	11.2%	10.3%	9.2%	7.8%	6.7%	6.4%	6.4%	6.6%	6.9%	6.9%	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Return on new capital — incremental ROIC	—	72.1%	70.8%	67.3%	64.3%	54.8%	51.8%	52.3%	54.6%	57.6%	59.2%	60.9%	60.8%	62.5%	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Present value
Discounted free cash flow	9,381	10,474	12,991	14,989	15,901	15,484	14,970	14,420	13,782	13,065	12,356	11,685	11,065	10,519	9,999	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Cumulative present value	9,381	19,854	32,846	47,834	63,735	79,220	94,189	108,609	122,391	135,456	147,812	159,497	170,562	181,080	191,080	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Implied equity value	162,845	202,122	235,579	257,249	269,211	277,689	284,284	289,457	293,771	297,909	301,975	306,181	310,351	314,471	318,391	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

ASML

ASML Holding N.V.

Information Technology·EUR·GM-3·FY2025 base·as of 2026-08-05

CompounderMed convictionAi cycle pricedChina demandMargin pressureExecution risk

What the market expects

MIFPOpenmodel not yet priced out

Implied growth19.9%rev CAGR priced in

Implied op margin43.2%year-5 priced in

Market price€1,453mcap €560bn

The analyst answers

Base case€694-52.3% vs mkt

Upside€889-38.8%

Downside€412-71.6%

The market

The analyst

Yours