Historical teaching case · prepared as of 2026-07-31 · not maintained to track the company · educational material, not investment advice · capital at risk

CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.$37·$47bnMIFP openimplied 9.4%base $18-51.1%

Workbench

Draft matches publish

Revenue buildup

5y growth 9.4%summary

Group revenue, in millions. Select the row to edit its growth path.

Line	FY25A	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31	FY32	FY33	FY34	FY35	FY36	FY37	FY38	FY39	FY40	FY41	FY42	FY43	FY44	FY45	FY46	FY47	FY48	FY49	FY50	growth
Revenue growth	11,926	12,918	14,223	15,629	17,139	18,719	20,344	21,978	23,571	25,094	26,514	27,805	28,965	30,030	30,994	31,909	32,783	33,632	34,460	35,290	36,112	36,939	37,774	38,624	39,485	40,358	9.4%

Operating economics

5y avg margin 17.2%summary

Operating margin, per cent of revenue. Tax and reinvestment follow below; the terminal assumptions sit on the premises panel.

Line	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31	FY32	FY33	FY34	FY35	FY36	FY37	FY38	FY39	FY40	FY41	FY42	FY43	FY44	FY45	FY46	FY47	FY48	FY49	FY50	avg margin	Long-run
Operating margin	15.6	16.5	17.4	18.1	18.5	18.8	18.9	19.0	19.1	19.2	19.2	19.2	19.3	19.2	19.3	19.3	19.2	19.2	19.2	19.3	19.2	19.2	19.2	19.2	19.2	17.2%	16.8%

Tax & reinvestment

year-5 investment 1,076m

Cash tax as a share of operating profit; capital spend and working capital as net investment per unit of new sales — the rate the model charges against each year's revenue growth. Select a row to edit its annual path.

Line	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31	FY32	FY33	FY34	FY35	FY36	FY37	FY38	FY39	FY40	FY41	FY42	FY43	FY44	FY45	FY46	FY47	FY48	FY49	FY50	Long-run driver
Cash tax rate	25.0%	25.0%	25.0%	25.0%	25.0%	25.0%	25.0%	25.0%	25.0%	25.0%	25.0%	25.0%	25.0%	25.0%	25.0%	25.0%	25.0%	25.0%	25.0%	25.0%	25.0%	25.0%	25.0%	25.0%	25.0%	25.0%
Capital spend	87.2%	71.0%	70.2%	68.7%	68.1%	67.7%	66.2%	63.9%	60.5%	55.4%	50.0%	45.6%	39.8%	35.9%	30.8%	26.6%	23.4%	21.0%	18.2%	16.9%	15.8%	15.0%	14.1%	13.8%	12.9%	12.9%
Working capital	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

What the assumptions imply

does not price out

Computed from the sections above and the premises panel — nothing here is editable. The walk runs to the highlighted crossover column — the first year the assumptions justify today's market price — and out to the 25-year ceiling when they never do, growing and shrinking as edits move the crossover.

Millions unless stated	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31	FY32	FY33	FY34	FY35	FY36	FY37	FY38	FY39	FY40	FY41	FY42	FY43	FY44	FY45	FY46	FY47	FY48	FY49	FY50
Revenue
Group revenue	12,918	14,223	15,629	17,139	18,719	20,344	21,978	23,571	25,094	26,514	27,805	28,965	30,030	30,994	31,909	32,783	33,632	34,460	35,290	36,112	36,939	37,774	38,624	39,485	40,358
Revenue growth	8.3%	10.1%	9.9%	9.7%	9.2%	8.7%	8.0%	7.2%	6.5%	5.7%	4.9%	4.2%	3.7%	3.2%	3.0%	2.7%	2.6%	2.5%	2.4%	2.3%	2.3%	2.3%	2.2%	2.2%	2.2%
Operating profit
Operating profit	2,013	2,341	2,714	3,096	3,457	3,820	4,152	4,480	4,795	5,087	5,332	5,573	5,796	5,963	6,151	6,331	6,465	6,627	6,791	6,952	7,077	7,240	7,406	7,577	7,748
Operating margin	15.6%	16.5%	17.4%	18.1%	18.5%	18.8%	18.9%	19.0%	19.1%	19.2%	19.2%	19.2%	19.3%	19.2%	19.3%	19.3%	19.2%	19.2%	19.2%	19.3%	19.2%	19.2%	19.2%	19.2%	19.2%
Taxes	503	585	679	774	864	955	1,038	1,120	1,199	1,272	1,333	1,393	1,449	1,491	1,538	1,583	1,616	1,657	1,698	1,738	1,769	1,810	1,851	1,894	1,937
Operating profit after tax	1,510	1,756	2,036	2,322	2,593	2,865	3,114	3,360	3,596	3,815	3,999	4,180	4,347	4,472	4,613	4,748	4,849	4,970	5,093	5,214	5,308	5,430	5,554	5,683	5,811
Cash flow
Investment	865	926	987	1,037	1,076	1,100	1,081	1,018	921	787	646	529	424	346	282	233	199	174	151	139	131	125	120	119	113
Free cash flow	645	830	1,048	1,285	1,517	1,765	2,032	2,341	2,675	3,028	3,353	3,651	3,923	4,126	4,331	4,515	4,650	4,797	4,942	5,075	5,177	5,304	5,434	5,564	5,698
Returns	terminal return on new capital 8.7%
Reinvestment rate	57.3%	52.8%	48.5%	44.7%	41.5%	38.4%	34.7%	30.3%	25.6%	20.6%	16.1%	12.6%	9.8%	7.7%	6.1%	4.9%	4.1%	3.5%	3.0%	2.7%	2.5%	2.3%	2.2%	2.1%	1.9%
Return on new capital — incremental ROIC	—	26.6%	28.3%	27.6%	25.2%	24.7%	23.0%	24.2%	25.6%	27.9%	28.5%	34.2%	39.5%	36.1%	50.0%	58.0%	50.8%	70.0%	81.2%	87.0%	71.6%	97.4%	103.9%	108.5%	113.5%
Present value
Discounted free cash flow	593	702	816	920	999	1,070	1,133	1,201	1,262	1,315	1,339	1,342	1,326	1,283	1,239	1,189	1,126	1,069	1,013	957	898	846	798	751	708
Cumulative present value	593	1,295	2,112	3,032	4,031	5,101	6,235	7,436	8,698	10,013	11,353	12,694	14,021	15,304	16,543	17,732	18,858	19,927	20,939	21,896	22,794	23,641	24,438	25,190	25,898
Implied equity value	12,972	14,814	16,790	18,631	20,163	21,564	22,695	23,745	24,697	25,534	26,178	26,798	27,345	27,703	28,107	28,471	28,709	28,991	29,258	29,501	29,665	29,875	30,072	30,261	30,434

CMG

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

Consumer Discretionary·USD·GM-1·FY2025 base·as of 2026-07-31

Med convictionMargin pressureExecution risk

What the market expects

MIFPOpenmodel not yet priced out

Implied growth9.4%rev CAGR priced in

Implied op margin18.5%year-5 priced in

Market price$37mcap $47bn

The analyst answers

Base case$18-51.1% vs mkt

Upside$29-23.5%

Downside$11-71.0%

The market

The analyst

Yours