market-implied Expectations Open analyst cases Scenarios $190 – $495
GOOGL Alphabet Inc. Communication Services · USD· OM-3· FY2025 base· as of 2026-07-31
Compounder Med conviction Margin pressure Execution risk Ai cycle priced
What the market expects MIFP Open model not yet priced out
Implied growth 18.5% rev CAGR priced in
Implied op margin 35.9% year-5 priced in
Market price $356 mcap $4.36tn
The analyst answers Base case $341 -4.1% vs mkt
Upside $495 +39.1%
Downside $190 -46.6%
The reading path 01 Expectations What the share price already assumes. 02 Base · Upside · Downside What we make of it — the analyst cases. 03 Workbench Move any assumption — and put your own odds on the risk space. The market
The analyst