Historical teaching case · prepared as of 2026-07-20 · not maintained to track the company · educational material, not investment advice · capital at risk

NFLXNetflix, Inc.$68·$285bnMIFP 12yimplied 11.1%base $82+21.5%

Workbench

Draft matches publish

Revenue buildup

5y growth 11.1%summary

Revenue by segment, in millions. Select a row to edit its growth path — the group row opens every segment.

Segment	FY25A	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31	FY32	FY33	FY34	FY35	FY36	FY37	growth
UCAN (US & Canada)	19,957	22,352	24,699	26,922	29,076	31,111	33,133	35,121	37,053	38,906	40,656	42,429	44,219	9.3%
EMEA	14,515	16,547	18,615	20,663	22,729	24,774	26,831	28,870	30,862	32,775	34,578	36,411	38,268	11.3%
LATAM	5,358	6,054	6,780	7,526	8,279	9,024	9,782	10,545	11,304	12,050	12,773	13,501	14,231	11.0%
APAC	5,354	6,424	7,613	8,907	10,243	11,575	12,987	14,468	16,001	17,569	19,150	20,778	22,440	16.7%
Group revenue	45,183	51,377	57,707	64,018	70,327	76,484	82,733	89,004	95,220	101,300	107,158	113,119	119,158	11.1%

Operating economics

5y avg margin 32.7%summary

Operating margin, per cent of revenue. Tax and reinvestment follow below; the terminal assumptions sit on the premises panel.

Line	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31	FY32	FY33	FY34	FY35	FY36	FY37	avg margin	Long-run
Operating margin	31.5	32.1	32.7	33.3	33.9	34.5	35.0	35.6	36.2	36.8	37.4	38.0	32.7%	38.0%

Tax & reinvestment

year-5 investment 1,232m

Cash tax as a share of operating profit; capital spend and working capital as net investment per unit of new sales — the rate the model charges against each year's revenue growth. Select a row to edit its annual path.

Line	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31	FY32	FY33	FY34	FY35	FY36	FY37	Long-run driver
Cash tax rate	14.0%	14.2%	14.4%	14.7%	14.9%	15.1%	15.3%	15.6%	15.8%	16.0%	16.0%	16.0%	16.0%
Capital spend	16.0%	15.7%	15.4%	15.1%	14.9%	14.6%	14.3%	14.0%	13.7%	13.4%	13.1%	12.9%	12.0%
Working capital	6.0%	5.8%	5.6%	5.4%	5.1%	4.9%	4.7%	4.5%	4.3%	4.1%	3.9%	3.6%	3.0%

What the assumptions imply

prices out in 12y · FY37

Computed from the sections above and the premises panel — nothing here is editable. The walk runs to the highlighted crossover column — the first year the assumptions justify today's market price — and out to the 25-year ceiling when they never do, growing and shrinking as edits move the crossover.

Millions unless stated	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31	FY32	FY33	FY34	FY35	FY36	FY37
Revenue
Group revenue	51,377	57,707	64,018	70,327	76,484	82,733	89,004	95,220	101,300	107,158	113,119	119,158
Revenue growth	13.7%	12.3%	10.9%	9.9%	8.8%	8.2%	7.6%	7.0%	6.4%	5.8%	5.6%	5.3%
Operating profit
Operating profit	16,184	18,518	20,921	23,398	25,898	28,502	31,196	33,936	36,701	39,456	42,318	45,280
Operating margin	31.5%	32.1%	32.7%	33.3%	33.9%	34.5%	35.0%	35.6%	36.2%	36.8%	37.4%	38.0%
Taxes	2,266	2,633	3,021	3,432	3,856	4,307	4,782	5,281	5,791	6,313	6,771	7,245
Operating profit after tax	13,918	15,885	17,900	19,965	22,041	24,195	26,413	28,656	30,910	33,143	35,547	38,035
Cash flow
Investment	1,363	1,361	1,325	1,293	1,232	1,218	1,191	1,150	1,094	1,025	1,013	996
Free cash flow	12,555	14,524	16,575	18,672	20,810	22,976	25,222	27,506	29,815	32,118	34,534	37,039
Returns	terminal return on new capital 9.4%
Reinvestment rate	9.8%	8.6%	7.4%	6.5%	5.6%	5.0%	4.5%	4.0%	3.5%	3.1%	2.9%	2.6%
Return on new capital — incremental ROIC	—	144.5%	152.1%	159.7%	168.6%	176.7%	186.2%	195.0%	205.9%	217.8%	237.3%	249.7%
Present value
Discounted free cash flow	11,473	12,129	12,649	13,021	13,261	13,380	13,422	13,376	13,250	13,043	12,816	12,561
Cumulative present value	11,473	23,602	36,251	49,272	62,533	75,913	89,336	102,712	115,962	129,005	141,820	154,381
Implied equity value	144,994	163,092	180,051	195,945	210,553	224,410	237,466	249,523	260,596	270,615	280,508	289,869

NFLX

Netflix, Inc.

Communication Services·USD·OM-2·FY2025 base·as of 2026-07-20

CompounderMed convictionMargin pressureExecution risk

What the market expects

MIFP12 yrsimplied forecast period

Implied growth11.1%rev CAGR priced in

Implied op margin33.9%year-5 priced in

Market price$68mcap $285bn

The analyst answers

Base case$82+21.5% vs mkt

Upside—

Downside—

The market

Yours