Historical teaching case · prepared as of 2026-08-05 · not maintained to track the company · educational material, not investment advice · capital at risk

NVDANVIDIA Corporation$220·$5.32tnMIFP 17yimplied 40.2%base $126-42.7%

Workbench

Draft matches publish

Revenue buildup

5y growth 40.2%summary

Revenue by segment, in millions. Select a row to edit its growth path — the group row opens every segment.

Segment	FY26A	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31	FY32	FY33	FY34	FY35	FY36	FY37	FY38	FY39	FY40	FY41	FY42	FY43	growth
Data Center	193,737	372,944	589,251	789,596	963,308	1,127,070	1,284,860	1,432,619	1,568,717	1,694,215	1,812,810	1,921,578	2,027,265	2,128,629	2,235,060	2,335,638	2,440,741	2,550,575	42.2%
Gaming	16,042	20,534	21,766	23,289	24,454	25,677	26,832	28,039	29,217	30,444	31,662	32,928	34,246	35,615	37,040	38,522	40,063	41,665	9.9%
Professional Visualization	3,191	4,308	5,083	5,795	6,432	7,011	7,502	7,952	8,350	8,726	9,075	9,438	9,815	10,208	10,616	11,041	11,482	11,941	17.0%
Automotive	2,349	3,289	4,341	5,470	6,673	7,941	9,211	10,409	11,554	12,594	13,475	14,284	15,069	15,823	16,614	17,444	18,317	19,233	27.6%
OEM and Other	619	681	715	736	758	781	805	829	854	879	906	933	961	990	1,019	1,050	1,081	1,114	4.8%
Group revenue	215,938	401,755	621,156	824,887	1,001,625	1,168,480	1,329,210	1,479,848	1,618,692	1,746,857	1,867,927	1,979,161	2,087,356	2,191,264	2,300,349	2,403,694	2,511,684	2,624,528	40.2%

Operating economics

5y avg margin 63.5%summary

Operating margin, per cent of revenue. Tax and reinvestment follow below; the terminal assumptions sit on the premises panel.

Line	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31	FY32	FY33	FY34	FY35	FY36	FY37	FY38	FY39	FY40	FY41	FY42	FY43	avg margin	Long-run
Operating margin	66.0	64.2	63.4	62.5	61.6	60.7	59.9	59.0	58.4	57.7	57.1	56.7	56.3	56.0	56.0	56.0	56.0	63.5%	56.0%

Tax & reinvestment

year-5 investment 53,727m

Cash tax as a share of operating profit; capital spend and working capital as net investment per unit of new sales — the rate the model charges against each year's revenue growth. Select a row to edit its annual path.

Line	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31	FY32	FY33	FY34	FY35	FY36	FY37	FY38	FY39	FY40	FY41	FY42	FY43	Long-run driver
Cash tax rate	17.0%	17.3%	17.5%	17.7%	17.9%	18.1%	18.1%	18.3%	18.3%	18.3%	18.3%	18.3%	18.3%	18.3%	18.3%	18.3%	18.3%	18.3%
Capital spend	5.2%	5.6%	6.6%	7.6%	7.8%	7.9%	8.1%	8.4%	8.9%	8.9%	9.0%	8.7%	9.0%	8.5%	8.8%	8.5%	8.2%	8.0%
Working capital	20.2%	23.8%	24.4%	25.4%	24.4%	24.7%	24.8%	25.1%	25.2%	25.5%	25.5%	25.3%	25.5%	25.1%	24.3%	24.3%	24.3%	24.3%

What the assumptions imply

prices out in 17y · FY43

Computed from the sections above and the premises panel — nothing here is editable. The walk runs to the highlighted crossover column — the first year the assumptions justify today's market price — and out to the 25-year ceiling when they never do, growing and shrinking as edits move the crossover.

Millions unless stated	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31	FY32	FY33	FY34	FY35	FY36	FY37	FY38	FY39	FY40	FY41	FY42	FY43
Revenue
Group revenue	401,755	621,156	824,887	1,001,625	1,168,480	1,329,210	1,479,848	1,618,692	1,746,857	1,867,927	1,979,161	2,087,356	2,191,264	2,300,349	2,403,694	2,511,684	2,624,528
Revenue growth	86.1%	54.6%	32.8%	21.4%	16.7%	13.8%	11.3%	9.4%	7.9%	6.9%	6.0%	5.5%	5.0%	5.0%	4.5%	4.5%	4.5%
Operating profit
Operating profit	265,287	399,092	522,978	625,516	719,199	806,167	885,689	955,837	1,019,292	1,076,860	1,130,101	1,182,488	1,232,587	1,288,195	1,346,068	1,406,543	1,469,735
Operating margin	66.0%	64.2%	63.4%	62.5%	61.6%	60.7%	59.9%	59.0%	58.4%	57.7%	57.1%	56.7%	56.3%	56.0%	56.0%	56.0%	56.0%
Taxes	45,099	68,843	91,521	110,716	128,737	145,513	160,753	174,440	186,531	197,065	206,809	216,395	225,563	235,740	246,330	257,397	268,962
Operating profit after tax	220,189	330,249	431,457	514,799	590,463	660,654	724,937	781,397	832,762	879,795	923,293	966,092	1,007,023	1,052,456	1,099,738	1,149,145	1,200,774
Cash flow
Investment	47,197	64,504	63,157	58,324	53,727	52,398	49,560	46,513	43,705	41,648	38,376	36,786	35,848	36,653	34,207	35,421	36,674
Free cash flow	172,991	265,745	368,300	456,476	536,736	608,256	675,377	734,884	789,057	838,147	884,917	929,306	971,175	1,015,803	1,065,530	1,113,725	1,164,100
Returns	terminal return on new capital 104.0%
Reinvestment rate	21.4%	19.5%	14.6%	11.3%	9.1%	7.9%	6.8%	6.0%	5.2%	4.7%	4.2%	3.8%	3.6%	3.5%	3.1%	3.1%	3.1%
Return on new capital — incremental ROIC	—	170.6%	160.2%	142.9%	140.8%	134.0%	129.7%	121.4%	117.5%	112.9%	113.3%	116.3%	114.2%	124.0%	138.2%	139.5%	140.8%
Present value
Discounted free cash flow	153,347	208,819	256,542	281,856	293,780	295,121	290,478	280,181	266,674	251,098	235,006	218,770	202,665	187,907	174,724	161,889	149,996
Cumulative present value	153,347	362,166	618,709	900,565	1,194,345	1,489,466	1,779,944	2,060,124	2,326,798	2,577,896	2,812,902	3,031,672	3,234,337	3,422,244	3,596,968	3,758,857	3,908,853
Implied equity value	1,934,877	2,710,210	3,328,129	3,762,659	4,103,285	4,375,127	4,588,529	4,746,462	4,868,076	4,961,792	5,034,926	5,097,204	5,147,635	5,199,387	5,247,682	5,292,465	5,333,991

NVDA

NVIDIA Corporation

Information Technology·USD·GM-2·FY2026 base·as of 2026-08-05

CompounderMed convictionAi cycle pricedChina demandMargin pressure

What the market expects

MIFP17 yrsimplied forecast period

Implied growth40.2%rev CAGR priced in

Implied op margin61.6%year-5 priced in

Market price$220mcap $5.32tn

The analyst answers

Base case$126-42.7% vs mkt

Upside$298+35.6%

Downside$64-71.0%

The market

The analyst

Yours