Revenue by segment, in millions. Select a row to edit its growth path — the group row opens every segment.
| Segment | FY25A | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 | growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advanced wafer — 7nm and below | 2,433,507 | 3,547,323 | 4,824,359 | 6,078,692 | 7,294,431 | 8,461,540 | 9,561,540 | 28.3% |
| Mature wafer — 16nm and above | 839,047 | 1,000,479 | 1,080,518 | 1,134,544 | 1,174,253 | 1,209,480 | 1,239,717 | 7.6% |
| Non-wafer services — packaging, testing, mask making, design | 536,501 | 831,576 | 1,205,786 | 1,615,753 | 2,019,691 | 2,403,432 | 2,763,947 | 35.0% |
| Group revenue | 3,809,054 | 5,379,378 | 7,110,662 | 8,828,988 | 10,488,374 | 12,074,452 | 13,565,204 | 26.0% |
Operating margin, per cent of revenue. Tax and reinvestment follow below; the terminal assumptions sit on the premises panel.
| Line | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 | avg margin | Long-run |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating margin | 58.8 | 59.4 | 59.0 | 57.6 | 55.6 | 53.6 | 58.1% | 50.9% |
Cash tax as a share of operating profit; capital spend and working capital as net investment per unit of new sales — the rate the model charges against each year's revenue growth. Select a row to edit its annual path.
| Line | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 | Long-run driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash tax rate | 17.5% | 18.2% | 18.4% | 18.4% | 18.5% | 18.5% | 17.9% |
| Capital spend | 75.0% | 94.9% | 112.2% | 120.0% | 123.3% | 120.5% | 90.7% |
| Working capital | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 11.3% |
Computed from the sections above and the premises panel — nothing here is editable. The walk runs to the highlighted crossover column — the first year the assumptions justify today's market price — and out to the 25-year ceiling when they never do, growing and shrinking as edits move the crossover.
| Millions unless stated | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ||||||
| Group revenue | 5,379,378 | 7,110,662 | 8,828,988 | 10,488,374 | 12,074,452 | 13,565,204 |
| Revenue growth | 41.2% | 32.2% | 24.2% | 18.8% | 15.1% | 12.3% |
| Operating profit | ||||||
| Operating profit | 3,161,041 | 4,223,733 | 5,209,103 | 6,038,157 | 6,708,565 | 7,270,949 |
| Operating margin | 58.8% | 59.4% | 59.0% | 57.6% | 55.6% | 53.6% |
| Taxes | 553,182 | 768,719 | 955,870 | 1,114,040 | 1,241,085 | 1,345,126 |
| Operating profit after tax | 2,607,859 | 3,455,014 | 4,253,233 | 4,924,117 | 5,467,481 | 5,925,824 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| Investment | 1,280,442 | 1,776,297 | 2,077,800 | 2,147,909 | 2,105,677 | 1,947,220 |
| Free cash flow | 1,327,416 | 1,678,717 | 2,175,433 | 2,776,208 | 3,361,804 | 3,978,603 |
| Returns | terminal return on new capital 42.0% | |||||
| Reinvestment rate | 49.1% | 51.4% | 48.9% | 43.6% | 38.5% | 32.9% |
| Return on new capital — incremental ROIC | — | 47.7% | 38.4% | 31.2% | 25.8% | 23.5% |
| Present value | ||||||
| Discounted free cash flow | 1,235,151 | 1,453,459 | 1,752,604 | 2,081,148 | 2,344,964 | 2,582,303 |
| Cumulative present value | 1,235,151 | 2,688,610 | 4,441,214 | 6,522,363 | 8,867,327 | 11,449,629 |
| Implied equity value | 39,727,224 | 49,734,667 | 58,077,483 | 64,168,179 | 68,367,460 | 71,440,480 |